“Very tight challenges”: Crime and housing among the key issues set to determine eastern Melbourne’s key election races

The Coalition must capture a number of seats across the east to unseat a Labor government with 12 years under its belt.

Author

Matthew Sims
August 07, 2026

Eastern Melbourne electorates like Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Rowville will help decide whether the Liberals can form government, according to Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian.

Speaking to the Eastern Melburnian, he said while it was too early to predict individual seat results, the major election issues were already emerging.

🏃 The final stretch: Victorians will vote on Saturday, November 28 across 88 Lower House electorates.

  • A party or coalition needs at least 45 seats to form a majority government.

🖼️ The big picture: Ghazarian said voters in Melbourne's east were likely to be driven more by statewide issues than local projects, with housing, healthcare, education and crime dominating the current political landscape.

  • 🗣️ “One of the big things that's really prominent in the Victorian political debate now is crime and law and order,” he told the Eastern Melburnian.

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🟠 Minor effects: Ghazarian said One Nation could also be involved in the contest if it fields candidates across Melbourne's outer east, and would likely focus on crime, government transparency and integrity.

♥️ Cards in play: The Labor party has 12 years of government behind it, something Ghazarian said means the Coalition must overcome. To do so, they’d need to take over in major Labor seats like Mulgrave (9.34 percent) and Ashwood (6.2 percent).

  • Five eastern MPs – representing Bayswater, Croydon, Malvern, Ringwood and Rowville – are retiring, creating several open contests. Candidates from all major parties are still announcing their intention to run.

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🥇 Must win: Ghazarian said Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Rowville were among the seats the Liberal party "desperately has to win”.

  • 🗣️ “These are the electorates that the Liberal party has, at various times, held in the past, but they’ve found it very difficult to reconnect with voters in the 21st century,” he said. “I expect them to be very tight challenges.”

Thumbnail Image Credit: Australian Electoral Commission